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The volatility index (VIX) is back at the $16 level behind key market drivers: the current earnings season and the bond market. With Fed reassurance of transitory inflation pushing markets’ to the upside, we recommend watching the critical support levels on the SPY at $445 and $440. CRWD, CHWY, and ZM are key earnings announcements this week that can potentially influence the market direction and we are still expecting a short-term correction to continue in the next two weeks. Additional market movers include COVID infection rates, Hurricane Ida’s impact, and global response to the tension in the Middle East. Key U.S. economic reports released this week will include monthly employment, payroll, and unemployment rate. Globally, European and Asian markets closed in the green. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Last week, all three major U.S. indices closed extend their gains into record territory. Markets traded to mixed results with the S&P and Nasdaq closing in the green while the Dow finished slightly lower. Oil futures spiked while fear of another financial crisis began to manifest following last week’s Fed Chair comments. Still, COVID infections rate continue to influence market and Fed responses as rates climb both in the U.S. and globally with several delta variants of the virus spiking. Look out for additional developments in the coming weeks in regards to the tension in the Middle East, vaccination rates, and the increasing possibility of a third vaccine shot to be advised.
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is eBay Inc (EBAY). EBAY is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $77.66 with a vector of -0.51% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, ebay. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $69.07 per barrel, up 0.48% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $45.85 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.35% at $1813.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $168.73 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.15% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.280% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.898% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.04 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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