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With inflation up 4.2% for the year following the latest April CPI report, all three major U.S. indices closed sharply lower, with Nasdaq seeing the largest dip- down 2.67%. Tech shares continue to struggle as market-wide pressure was seen following the troubling consumer-price index report which showed one of the fastest rises in rates since 2008. Other key movers in the market today include car-rental company Hertz which saw shares soar over 55% following the latest $6 billion plan released, Electronic Arts which saw shares dip following its earnings release, and long-term Treasury notes which traded higher for the first time in nearly two months. Additional key economic reports to release this week include weekly jobless claims, April retail sales, and Import Price Index. Thursday will feature several major earnings including Alibaba, Disney, and DoorDash. Next week retail earnings remain in focus as well several key Annual General Corporate meetings such as McDonald’s, Home Depot, and JPMorgan Chase. Globally, European markets traded higher while Asian markets closed to mixed results. The $SPY broke below key mid-term support at $410. QQQ has been trading below the 50-day moving average for a few sessions and the market is getting close to an oversold level. The next key support level is near $400 60-days moving average. At this point, the top is set at $425 and I encourage users to consider selling into market rebounds. Our models are projecting the $SPY to trade in the range of $385-$425 for the next 6 weeks, following the latest rebound and slowing momentum behind treasury and currency markets. The $SPY has reached our target of $415-$425 based on the 6-month forecast from our Stock Forecast Toolbox and we encourage readers to raise cash at this point. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Upcoming Earnings:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LTD (TEVA). TEVA is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $10.27 with a vector of +0.20% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, TEVA. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $65.72 per barrel, up 0.67% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $44.66 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.10% at $1815.90 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $167.27 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.05% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.700% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.415% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $27.59 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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