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U.S. markets look to bounce back from an ugly selloff on Friday with all three main indices opening higher on Monday. The dollar, however, continues to slip as it did so to end last week while Asian markets saw a bounce back, signaling a softer approach to trade talks between the Trump administration and Beijing. The Dow Jones advanced 313 points on Monday while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 15 and 58 points, respectively. Optimism regarding avoiding a trade war rose from the weekend as the White House officials, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, played down the possibility. More clarity regarding China’s stance on the trade war and retaliation should come Tuesday when Chinese President Xi speaks at the Boao Forum on Tuesday. Other big news this week will include the beginning of first-quarter earnings season on Thursday and Friday when JPMorgan and Wells Fargo are set to release their earnings reports as well as Mark Zuckerburg’s appearance in front of both Senate and House committees on Tuesday.
Over the weekend, an upbeat and hopeful tone that seems to soften the U.S. stance on the possible trade war made its way around the Trump administration. The softer, hopeful rhetoric saw positive gains in all three major indices while other sectors and indices followed suit. If this uptick to counteract last week’s big dropoffs and selloffs will stick is still anyone’s guess as no tariffs have yet been put into effect and talks with both China and North Korea are on the docket. Beijing, however, has made it very clear they believe the U.S. is responsible for the trade friction and that current conditions have made it impossible for negotiations to begin, according to China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang.
Continuing last week’s market-wide interest in Facebook’s data scandal, investors will be waiting on more information on the matter from Mark Zuckerberg’s, along with other Facebook execs’, meeting with both the Senate and House. Original estimate had 87 million users’ data wrongly accessed by Cambridge Analytica, the data firm at the center of the Facebook scandal who were hired by the 2016 Trump Campaign and misused Facebook user data. Today, those affected by the data breach will be notified which will give the public a better understanding of the number of users affected and depth of data mishandled. The whistleblower, a Former Cambridge Analytica research director, Christoper Wylie has stated that the number of user data breached could exceed original estimates as it is hard to verify the total number of users affected. Over the weekend, Facebook ousted two data companies, CubeYou and AggregateIQ, for improper or unauthorized use of data and while this does signal a better handling of user data from the social media giant, its shares have fallen 11% for 2018.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. Today’s vector figure of 0.10% rises to 1.56% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,605.59 (±10.46) and 2,647.84 (± 10.63), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,623.89. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On April 6, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Equity Residential of Benefici (EQR). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
EQR opened near the Entry 1 price range of $62.91 (± 0.30) at $63.25, moving through its Target Price of $63.54 within the first hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $62.28.
Our featured stock for Tuesday is Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ). NDAQ is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B)– indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.00% in one trading session which incrementally builds above +2.00% throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $86.18 at the time of publication, up 1.15% from the open with a +0.71% vector figure.
Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $86.30, a low of $85.79 and a high of $87.62.
The predicted close for Tuesday is $86.58. Vector figures jump to +1.56% on Tuesday and drive upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Live Trading Room Update
When the market was down last week, see how we traded in volatile conditions and what you might expect in our next Live Trading Room. During recent volatility, we held Live Trading Room Session where our winning trades ranged 3.08% to over 111.54% ROI!
| Symbol | Net Gain % |
| EQR | 3.08% |
| EL | 46.98% |
| DLTR | 33.72% |
| EQR | 111.54% |
| VIAB (OPTION) | 44.74% |
| SPY(OPTION) | 36.59% |
Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but Live Trading Room Sessions are only available for Premium Members.
We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during very volatile markets.
Oil
After a bad week for oil as fear of a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies grew, Monday saw oil prices trade higher. Reports from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which has been holding back crude output by 1.8 million barrels a day in 2018, and the International Energy Agency are due Thursday and Friday, respectively, while the IEA will also release its monthly short-term energy outlook report on Tuesday and its weekly U.S. petroleum-supply data on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery (CLK8) is priced at $63.32 per barrel at the time of publication, up 2.11% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.77 at the time of publication, up 2.16% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $12.36 (± 0.07) and resistance at $12.80 (± 0.07). The predicted close for today is $12.40. Vector figures show -1.10% today, which stay negative for the next three trading sessions before reversing to positive territory. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for June gold (GCM8) is up 0.24% at $1,338.60 at the time of publication. After seeing a weekly gain of .9%, Gold dipped Monday before slightly bouncing back. Geopolitical issues such as China/U.S. tariffs and an attack on Syria are at the forefront for investors as no economic or Federal Reserve data is set to release this week. Investors will also be watching the dollar’s reaction to global news as a strong dollar could weaken gold and other commodities, and vice versa.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $126.75, up 0.29% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $126.39 (± 0.35) and the predicted high is $127.72 (± 0.35). The predicted close today is $126.95. Vector signals show +0.35% for today, fluctuating above +1.00% and back down toward the end of the forecast. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Treasury yields are up while prices decline, continuing to react to tension between the U.S. and China. Over the weekend, White House officials came out with a softer tone regarding tariffs and a possible trade war, making treasuries once more an appealing haven for now. Investors and strategists alike will continue to monitor developments on the global front between these two heavyweights for further action or reconciliation. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note is unchanged at 2.29% at the time of publication. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.79% at 2.80% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.54% at 3.04% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.08% moves to 0.42% within three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $120.95 at the time of publication, up 0.01%. The predicted close today is $121.43 with a low and high of $120.94 (± 0.23) and $121.70 (± 0.23), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 4.37% at 20.55 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. The predicted close for today is 21.02 with a vector of +0.21%. The predicted lows and highs are 18.46 (± .94) and 24.11 (± 1.23), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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