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After closing at record levels last week, U.S. indices dipped to start the week with all three major benchmarks closing in the red while the small-cap Russell closed over 1.35% down. Markets were boosted by strong bank earnings last week which officially kicked off the latest quarterly earnings season. Earnings this week will be headlined by Netflix, Coca-Cola, IBM, Johnson & Johnson, and AT&T. Apart from earnings, vaccine developments will impact markets as additional reports continue to release. Over half of U.S. adults received one of their vaccination shots thus far, as reported by the CDC, with more to come in the coming weeks as eligibility continues to widen. U.S.-bonds yields have remained near the 1.6% level for 10-year notes while gold and the dollar, typically moving inversely to each other, both traded lower today. Bitcoin, and fellow cryptocurrencies, saw a volatile weekend with BTC currently trading near $56,000. Globally, Asian markets closed impressively in the green while European markets were mixed. With the SPY breaking above the $400 level across all asset classes, following the recent rebound and deteriorating momentum behind treasury and currency markets, our models are projecting the SPY to trade in the range of $385-$420 for the next 6 weeks. The $SPY has reached our target of $415-$420 based on the 6-month forecast from our Stock Forecast Toolbox and we encourage readers to raise cash at this point. The DXY sold off and the TLT continues to trade in the range. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Upcoming Earnings:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The stock is trading at $439.92 with a vector of +0.69% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does NOT have a position in the featured symbol, HUM. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $63.48 per barrel, up 0.55% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $40.9 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.51% at $1771.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $162.28 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.12% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.603% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.300% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.91 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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