RoboStreet – June 13, 2019
Selective Stock Picking at a Premium
This past week, seeing the S&P pivot off its 200-day moving average at 2,775 and rally a full 200 points higher was about as impressive of a move as anyone can remember in recent history. Fueled by the Fed all but guaranteeing one or more rate cuts and a suspension of threatened tariffs on Mexican imports, stocks of most leading companies shot higher, many of which posting new all-time highs.
A soft jobs report sealed the narrative that the Fed will issue a quarter-point reduction in the Fed Funds Rate to 2.25% with the futures market looking for one or two more cuts by year-end. Consumer confidence was already at multi-year highs before bond yields plunged on the jobs data, and now with mortgage rates falling back below 4%, a fresh wave of home refinancing will likely occur, keeping consumer sentiment high.
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
The 6% gain for the S&P over a five-day period has put the market in a short-term overbought condition, where some fast profit-taking and consolidation is warranted. For our RoboInvestor subscribers, we booked profits in Applied Materials (AMAT), the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), Walmart Inc. (WMT), Medtronic PLC (MDT) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) – all from June 5- June 11. Gains on each position range from 3.74% to 12.12%. If an investor placed 10,000 in each stock recommendation, they would have banked $3,211 for the week!
Our track record continues to impress with 63 out of 67 closed trades generating profits, representing a 94.03% closed trade winning streak over the past 14 months. Heading into the middle of June, the RoboInvestor Portfolio is currently long some true market leading stocks like Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon.com (AMZN), PayPal Inc. (PYPL) and Honeywell International (HON). I don’t play around with second and third tier stocks – only the best of breed stocks with strong institutional followings.
When I take a position alongside each recommendation with my hard-earned capital, I know Wall Street has my back and I wouldn’t want it any other way. There’s way too much headline risk to consider jumping on IPOs that soar for a couple of days and crash back to earth. Once in a blue moon, a stock like Beyond Meat (BYND) defies logic and gets a super frothy valuation. And this year’s IPO splurge has created some short-term opportunities, but true to form, most IPOs are like roman candles that flame out.
About 200 IPOs come to market every year and history shows that 60% of companies that come to the public market will lag the market in the first year. Buying stocks that open 100% above their initial public offering price create an immediate vacuum underneath and are highly vulnerable to volatility when lockup periods expire within the first 90-180 days of when a stock goes public. It’s a bit like playing with fire, but 2019 has seen a plethora of high-profile unicorns come to market worth hundreds of billions of dollars collectively. And the market is done an admirable job absorbing them.
Within the secular trends that are gaining momentum, legalization of recreational marijuana use is getting a lot of traction within a number of states in the U.S. where estimates of the size of the formative market are anywhere from $22 billion to $31 billion. 2020 being an election year will bring multiple bills to state legislatures to relax laws and make non-medical consumption of pot a legal activity.
Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, Washington and Washington D.C. have already legalized weed with 15 other states decriminalizing recreational pot use and paving the way for legalization in the near future. It’s really not a matter of if most states will legalize pot, but when and with such a widespread trend in place, there is a vast number of investment propositions to consider for how to score some profits in this inevitable marketplace.
While there is great fanfare surrounding cannabis stocks like Canopy Growth (CGC), Aurora Cannabis (AURO), Tilray Inc. (TLRY), Cronos Inc. (CRON) and GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) as growers and suppliers of products to the medical and recreational markets, it might be those companies that have existing distribution of weed-based products to the public that offer the most viable profit potential.
Within this part of the cannabis food chain is Cresco Labs (CRLBF), a U.S. based company based out of Chicago that is in the throes of acquiring Origin House (ORHOF), the largest distributor of cannabis in California, which is the largest cannabis market in the world. Upon the closing the deal, Cresco Labs will be operating in 11 states and Canada. At present, the company has over 500 distribution partners representing more than 50 brands of cannabis products. After the merger, the number of distribution partners will be over 725 offering over 56 branded products.
The acquisition of Origin House will make Cresco Labs the number one cannabis consumer packaged goods company in North America. Shares of CRLBF are trading around $9.20 sporting a $1.0 billion market cap. Unlike almost every other cannabis company, Cresco Labs makes a profit. First quarter revenue of $21.1 million was up 313% year-over-year and 24% above Q4 2018. First quarter gross profit was $9.4 million compared to $2.2 million in Q1 2018.
The cannabis wars are just heating up and while there will be a few big winners, there will be many more losers, similar to the dot com days. Having a platform based on AI to sift through the fundamental and technical data is crucial to committing capital to the cannabis sector and potential big winners like Cresco Labs. As a group, the cannabis sector is consolidating and I’m seeking attractive entry points among the leading names to consider owning in the RoboInvestor Portfolio.
Whether this is a generational wealth-building proposition or an intermediate-term trade, my AI tools will determine the risk/reward factors that are necessary to manage the volatility that is part of investing in pot stocks. Sign on today to become a RoboInvestor and look for me to bring the single best trades in the cannabis sector that have the highest probability of producing big gains.
This megatrend along with 5G, Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, big data, cybersecurity, and mobile e-commerce is for real and getting in on tomorrow’s winners today is what successful investing is all about. Doing it intelligently with AI makes the way to profits that much more attainable. Take me up on becoming a RoboInvsestor and put my many years of cutting-edge software development to work for your portfolio.
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
*Please note: RoboStreet is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, MonthlyTrader, or RoboInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
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