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Markets are on the rise today as U.S.-China tension seemed to significantly ease in light of this weekend’s trade negotiations. With tariffs on hold and China agreeing to buy a substantial amount of U.S. goods to narrow the trade deficit, major indices rallied with a few hitting monthly highs. I recommend selling into the rallies. Volume is low which should prove Seasonal Charts pivotal for finding the right entry points in during volatility.
Besides the major gains in the S&P and Nasdaq, the Dow saw record rallies, hitting a two month high. The Russell 2000 is on track for its fourth straight day of gains. As we wrap earnings seasons with most companies in the major indices reporting above expectations it’s nice to finally see the market rally without the weight of a looming trade war with China. Though trade talks will continue, investors saw this weekend as a sign of promise for both global and domestic markets. This, in turn, affected yields on bonds, which rose to a multi-year high on Friday, hitting 3.12%, and the dollar, which modestly rose and poorly affected the already-slipping commodity gold.
Some market activity to note includes GE’s 3% gains after its merge with railroad equipment company WAB, Tesla also rose by about the same amount after they announced they’re new Model 3 pricing at $78,000, and Fifth Third Bank shares dropped by 7% after it agreed to buy Chicago-based regional bank MB Financial, causing MBFI to jump an impressive 14%.
Not much is on the docket for economic reports today, however, we will have speeches from multiple Fed officials. Atlanta and Philadelphia Fed presidents are scheduled to speak this afternoon while we will hear from Minneapolis Fed president later tonight.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.25% moves to -1.31% in two trading sessions before dipping further into negative territory. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,609.15 (±9.15) and 2,674.35 (± 9.38), respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,621.69. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On May 18th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for National Oilwell Vaco, Inc. (NOV). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
NOV opened near Entry 1 price range of $42.45 (± 0.31), moving through its Target Price of $42.87 in it the first hour of trading, reaching $43.35 in its third hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $42.03.
Our featured stock for Tuesday is Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST). COST is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B)– indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +0.99% in four trading sessions which then incrementally builds throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks please click here.
The stock is trading at $199.63 at the time of publication, up 0.34% from the open with a +0.46% vector figure.
Tuesdays prediction shows an open price of $197.75, a low of $197.47 and a high of $201.15.
The predicted close for Tuesday is 200.55. Vector figure stays positive and drives upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery (CLM8) is priced at $71.99 per barrel, up .93% from the open, at the time of publication. Worries over Venezuela’s recent reelection of President Maduro to a six-year term has oil traders fearing another bad turn for the country’s economy which in turn can affect global supply and prices. With possible sanctions ahead, the commodity looks to continue rising. Investors should monitor such geopolitical news for further direction of the commodity.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.6128 at the time of publication, up 1.2% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $14.29 and resistance at $14.42. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.37. Vector figures show -0.19% today, which turns positive 0.91% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold looks have been hit the hardest by the mostly-market positive news of the cooldown in U.S. China trade tension. This caused the dollar to perform well, as well as global currencies in Europe and Asia, which brought gold to 2018 low. The price for June gold (GCM8) is down 0.17% at $1,288.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.395, down .01% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $120.76 and the predicted high is $121.28. The predicted close for tomorrow is $121.14. Vector signals show -0.24% for today, reaching -1.05% in one trading session. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
This weekend’s trade talks, which eased investors worries over further escalation and growing trade deficit, erased some of the record highs gained last week, hitting a high of 3.126%, in bond yields. Still trading at a fairly high rate, these yields look to continue lowering as trade talks continue positively. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.54% at 3.07% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.27% from the open at 3.21%.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mostly positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of 0.58% moves to +.85% in two trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $117.07 at the time of publication, down 0.12%. The predicted close tomorrow is $117.03 with a low and high of $116.85 and $118.29, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 1.27% at 13.25 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 13.87 with a vector of +0.4%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 11.48 and 14.50, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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