CNQR Market Research & Analysis Report
Updated Dec 19, 2013

Growth and Balance Sheet

Concur reported total GAAP revenue for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 of $156.9 million. Excluding revenue from businesses  that the  company intends to divest, non-GAAP revenue for the fourth quarter of 2013 was $154.2 million, up 31% from the year-ago quarter and up 11% from the prior quarter. GAAP net loss attributable to Concur for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2013 was $7.5 million, or $0.13 per share. Fiscal 2013 fourth quarter non-GAAP pretax income was $23.1 million, or $0.39 per share. For the full 2013 fiscal year, GAAP revenue was $545.8 million. Excluding revenue from businesses that the company intends to divest, non-GAAP  revenue increased 23.5% from the prior year to $543 million. GAAP net loss attributable to Concur for the 2013 fiscal year was $24.4 million,  or $0.44 per share. Fiscal year 2013 non-GAAP pretax income was $76.3 million, or $1.33 per share.

Valuation

Concur stock forward PE stands at 87.72 above the industry average of 23.14, and above the S&P 500 average of 17.83. The company is currently trading well above the preferable P/E ratio of 15x.  CNQR's current Price/Sales of  9.63  is  above  the average of its industry, of  2.61.  The beta of  1.05  implies  higher  volatility of the stock with respect to the S&P 500.  NCQR  has shown negative  earnings consistency over the last five years. Furthermore,  NCQR’s earnings per share over the  last five years have increased by  12.00%. The current quarter earnings in comparison to the same quarter last year have  increased  by 13.30% which is below  the required level of 15%.  The EBITDA for the last 12 months stand at  48.04M.  The PEG ratio is 6.57.  The company has  a  total debt to equity ratio of  79.00.  CNQR’s current price levels are  below  the preferable level,  22% below the 52 week high of $114.32, and the technical indicators are  bearish. The majority of the analyst ratings are  Hold.  CNQR  has a  dividendpayout ratio of zero.

About CNQR

Concur Technologies, Inc. provides integrated travel and expense management solutions for companies worldwide. Its cloud computing solutions help companies and their employees to control costs, save time, and boost productivity by streamlining the expense management, travel procurement, itinerary management, and invoice management processes.

Competitor Comparison

Concur Technologies, Inc. (NasdaqGS:CNQR) N.V.

Highlights

Concur Technologies, Inc. is a global provider of on-demand Employee Spend Management solutions.  The Company's mission to make travel better for the entire travel ecosystem is supported by product development efforts, partner and platform initiatives, investments in the Perfect Trip Fund, and strategic acquisitions.  The stock closed yesterday’s trading session at $93.86. In the past year, the stock has hit a 52-week low of $62.01 and 52-week high of $114.32. CNQR has a market cap of $5.26 billion and is part of the technology sector.

• Strong distribution and sales network 
• Skilled workforce
• New markets

• Growing competition 
• Expensive at P/E ratio level 
• Increasing costs

CNQR Intrinsic Value

Stock Valuation Model & Intrinsic Value Definitions

Investors should keep an eye open for stocks that are trading within 10% of their 52 -week highs, as it is likely to continue in its upward trend. CNQR's 52 week high is $114.32 current price is $93.86, is 22% below the 52 week high.

The Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio, based on the greater of the current PE or the PE using average earnings over the last 3 fiscal years, must be "moderate", which in our model is not greater than 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive. The company has a forward  P/E ratio of  87.72  above  the average industry P/E ratio of  23.14  and is  above  the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 17.83.

When there is strong insider ownership which we define as 8% or more, management is more likely to act in the best interest of the company, as their interests are right in line with that of the shareholders. Insiders own  16.11% of  CNQR  stock. Management's representation is  large enough. This does  satisfy our minimum requirement; companies that pass this test are more attractive to our stock market valuation model.

The model is using several technical analysis indicators and moving averages (MACD, RSI, MFI, OBV, position Indicators) to forecast  the trend of the stock for 6 and 12 months, and assign a value.

CNQR  is trading in the range of $89.92  -  $105.49  in the past 30 days. The stock has been showing support  at  $92.00  and resistance in the $97.50  range. The stock is trading  below the 50-Day Moving Average and  below the 200-Day Moving Average. The RSI(14) is 39.91. Our indicators give a bearish view on CNQR.

The financial health of the company the higher the better, we evaluate all the financial ratios of the company.

Investor’s sentiment for the stock.

The model assigns a value according to analyst’s recommendation for the stock.  Analyst rating on Reuters.com is  4  Buy,  3  Outperform,  10  Hold,  3 Underperform and 1 Sell.

We are searching for Earnings  Per  Share  numbers that are better than the previous year's. One dip is allowed, but the following year's earnings  should be higher than the previous year.  CNQR’s annual EPS for the last 5 years were  0.49,  0.38,  -0.20,  -0.13  and  -0.44  this type of earnings action is negative.

The company must have a low Debt/Equity ratio, which indicates a strong balance sheet. The Debt/Equity ratio should not be greater than 20% or should be less than the average Debt/Equity for its industry.  CNQR  havetotal debt/equity ratio of 79.00% which is negative.

The Earnings Per Share growth for this quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier is above the minimum 15% that this model likes to see for a "good" growth company. Stocks with improving earnings are worthy of your extra attention.  CNQR’s EPS growth for this quarter relative to the same quarter a year earlier is 13.30%, below our target.

This stock valuation model looks for annual earnings growth above 12%, but prefers higher than 20%.  CNQR’s annual earnings growth rate over the past five years is  12.00%, at  the target growth rate.

¹Tradespoon Score and Outlook: This score conveys Tradespoon’s long-term outlook of 1 to 5 years for a particular stock. Tradespoon uses proprietary methods to rate its trading picks on a scale from 1 to 10, with a 10 being the most favorable expected risk and return outlook. To determine a stock’s rating, Tradespoon uses an advanced algorithm that factors in fundamental and technical analysis to determine a stock's expected risk and return.